| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 28, 2026 will be. It matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability because it aggregates expectations about that day's weather outcome.
Phoenix is a desert city with a pronounced spring warming trend; late March sits in the seasonal transition from cooler winter patterns to warmer spring conditions. Day-to-day outcomes depend heavily on large-scale weather patterns (ridges, troughs, fronts) rather than long-term climate averages, so single-day extremes are common relative to monthly means.
Prediction market prices synthesize forecasts, observations, and trader judgment into a real-time signal about which temperature ranges participants expect for that day. Treat market odds as an information aggregator that updates with new model output and observations, not as a guarantee.
The event will settle to the data source and station specified in the contract terms; check the Kalshi event page for the designated observing station and official reporting source (the contract's settlement rules override informal sources).
Most contracts use the local calendar day (00:00–23:59:59 local time) at the designated observation site, but you should confirm the exact observation window and time zone in the contract's settlement specifications on the event page.
Forecasts become much more informative within about 5–7 days as models resolve synoptic-scale features; in the 24–72 hours before the date, high-resolution guidance and real-time observations typically drive the largest changes in expectations.
Historical climatology provides a baseline and context (typical late-March highs and the local record distribution), but single-day outcomes can deviate substantially due to transient weather systems, so combine climatology with current model and observational data.
Settlement follows the contract's specified data source and dispute-resolution procedures; if sensor issues or ambiguities arise, refer to the event's official rules on the Kalshi page for how exceptions and corrections are handled.