| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° to 101° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 102° to 103° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 104° to 105° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 106° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the maximum air temperature observed in Phoenix on March 27, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive businesses, utilities, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability in a major desert city.
Late March in Phoenix is a seasonal transition with substantial day-to-day variability driven by large-scale atmospheric patterns and local effects; some years feature early heat while others remain mild. Synoptic-scale features (upper-level ridging or troughs), recent precipitation, and urban heat-island effects all shape the day's peak temperature. The market provides a way to aggregate diverse forecasts and real-time observations into a single market signal.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of participants about the most likely observed maximum and will move as new forecasts and observations arrive. Treat market prices as probabilistic signals that complement, but do not replace, official meteorological forecasts and direct measurements.
The outcome is the official highest air temperature recorded during the local calendar day on Mar 27, 2026 at the observing station and data source specified in the market's rules; refer to the event rule text for the precise measurement definition and time standard.
The event page and market rules will name the authoritative data source and exact station location used for settlement; review those details on the event page to see which official observing network (for example, National Weather Service/ASOS or another specified provider) is used.
The close time is listed as TBD; the market will close at the time published on the event page—typically before the start of the measurement day—and final settlement will occur after the official data provider publishes and finalizes the daily maximum for Mar 27, 2026.
Participants update positions as new model guidance, satellite imagery, radar, surface observations, and short-range nowcasts become available, so price changes reflect the evolving consensus among traders alongside official forecasts and observational updates.
Settlement procedures for data gaps, instrument errors, or ambiguous records are defined in the market's rulebook—usually by deferring to the official data provider's quality-controlled value or an alternate specified station; consult the event's settlement rules for the exact tie-breaking and fallback process.