| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° to 101° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 102° to 103° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 104° to 105° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 106° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which outcome will correspond to the highest observed air temperature in Phoenix on March 26, 2026. It matters because it summarizes collective expectations about a one-day weather extreme and reflects real‑time forecast information.
Late March in Phoenix is a seasonal transition toward warmer spring conditions; daily highs are governed more by immediate weather patterns than long-term trends. Synoptic features such as high‑pressure ridges, cold fronts, cloud cover, and recent precipitation can produce large day‑to‑day swings in maximum temperature.
Market odds are a real‑time aggregation of traders’ expectations and weather information; they update as new model runs, observations, and news arrive. Use them as a quantitative indicator of consensus forecasts, not as definitive outcomes.
The event’s settlement documentation specifies the official data source (for example, a named NWS/ASOS climate station or other specified observing location). Consult the market rules on the event page to see the exact station or data feed that will be used.
Settlement follows the exchange’s published definition: it will state the observation time window (commonly 00:00–23:59 local time), the temperature units (°F or °C), and any rounding or reporting conventions. Read the event’s settlement rules to confirm the precise definition.
The event currently lists a close time as TBD; the market page will show the official trading close and the expected settlement schedule once set. Exchanges often close markets before the observation date or immediately after relevant observations are finalized.
Consider Phoenix’s seasonal climatology for late March, any recent heat or cold spells in the weeks leading up to March 26, and persistent large‑scale patterns (e.g., prolonged ridging). Short‑term model forecasts and recent observation trends are most influential for a single‑day maximum.
Tie‑breaking and handling of identical reported maxima are addressed in the market’s settlement rules. Common approaches include using the official observing site’s reported value or following a predefined hierarchy of data sources; check the event documentation for the exact procedure.