| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° to 102° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° to 104° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market resolves on the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 25, 2026; it matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking seasonal heat trends in the region.
Late March in Phoenix sits between winter and the onset of the hot season, so day-to-day temperatures can swing with synoptic weather patterns. Long-term warming trends have raised baseline temperatures, but individual daily highs remain strongly controlled by short-term atmospheric conditions such as ridging, fronts, and cloud cover.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of participants about what the official highest temperature reading will be on that date; consult the contract text for the exact settlement definition and observation source used to determine the outcome.
The market will resolve to the official observing source specified in the contract text; many markets reference an official National Weather Service or airport station for Phoenix—check the market page to see the exact station and dataset used for settlement.
The contract defines the measurement window (commonly the local calendar day in Phoenix time); settlement uses the maximum reported temperature within that specified 24-hour period as recorded by the designated observing source.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range or bin outlined in the market listing; the single bin that contains the official recorded maximum temperature on March 25, 2026 will be the winning outcome—refer to the listing for the exact thresholds.
Follow deterministic and ensemble model runs (surface temperature, 500 mb pattern), NWS forecasts and any scheduled fronts, as well as local factors like cloud cover and precipitation forecasts that can suppress daytime highs.
Settlement timing is specified in the contract; it typically occurs after the official observing agency publishes the daily summary—check the market page for the settlement timeline and the source used for the final verified temperature.