| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° to 101° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 102° to 103° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 104° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix will be on March 24, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive decisions (events, energy demand, agriculture) and for traders who want to express views on a specific daily temperature outcome.
Late March in Phoenix sits in the spring transition: daytime temperatures can be warm but remain highly sensitive to large-scale patterns such as incoming troughs or building ridges. Year-to-year variability is driven by synoptic-scale setups, short-range storm passages, and local effects (urban heat island, downslope winds), so a given date can produce a wide range of possible highs.
Market prices aggregate participants' current information and forecasts about what the reported maximum will be; they update as new model runs, observations, and forecasts arrive. Use prices as a real-time indicator of market sentiment about the likely settlement outcome rather than a single authoritative forecast.
The listed close time is TBD on the event page; settlement will occur after the official observing agency publishes the daily maximum for the specified station and date. Check the contract page on KALSHI for the platform's exact trading cutoff and settlement timing.
The contract rulebook on the market page specifies the authoritative observing station or dataset used for settlement (for example, an official NWS climate station). Consult the contract details to see the exact station identifier and data source that will determine the outcome.
The exact 24‑hour measurement window (including time zone and cutoff) is defined in the contract specification. Many weather contracts use local standard time midnight-to-midnight at the reporting station, but you should confirm the precise definition on the market’s rules.
Monitor model runs and forecasts for approaching ridges or troughs, frontal timing, cloud cover trends, overnight temperature behavior (which affects daytime range), and mesoscale warnings (wind shifts or downslope flow) from the National Weather Service and high‑resolution models.
After the date, consult the data source named in the contract (for example, the official NWS daily climate summary for the specified station) to find the published daily maximum. The market will reference that same source for settlement—check the contract rules for links or station IDs used.