| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° to 102° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 23, 2026 will be. It matters because daily maximum temperature can affect energy demand, public health alerts, and short-term economic activity in the region.
Phoenix sits in the Sonoran Desert and March is a transitional spring month when temperatures can vary widely from cool-to-mild nights to warm daytime spikes. Short-term synoptic patterns (storms or ridging), seasonal climate drivers, and the city’s urban heat island all combine with a long-term warming trend to shape daily extremes.
Market odds aggregate participants’ expectations and tend to move as meteorological forecasts and observations change; treat them as a real-time summary of market sentiment rather than a single definitive forecast.
Resolution typically follows the official maximum temperature reported by the designated official weather station for Phoenix (commonly the National Weather Service station used for official records); check the market’s specific resolution rules to confirm the exact reporting station and source.
The measurement window is the calendar date in local Phoenix time (Phoenix remains on Mountain Standard Time year‑round, UTC−7), but confirm the precise local-time window in the market’s resolution rules in case the market uses a specific reporting convention.
Most event rules specify fallback procedures such as using an alternate official station, a consolidated NWS data product, or a specific reanalysis product; check the event page for the fallback hierarchy that will be applied if primary data are unavailable.
Expect substantial changes as deterministic and ensemble model guidance comes into agreement in the few days leading up to Mar 23; longer-range signals can hint at trends, but specific daytime maximums become much more certain closer to the date.
Relevant context includes typical late‑March variability for Phoenix (spring warming with occasional early heat spikes), recent weeks’ temperature and soil moisture anomalies, and any active climate drivers (e.g., persistent patterns that have altered regional temperatures earlier in the season).