| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105° to 106° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° to 102° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 107° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° to 104° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix will be on March 22, 2026. It matters for traders who want to express expectations about near‑term weather and for anyone tracking how spring temperatures compare to typical conditions and recent trends.
Phoenix experiences large day‑to‑day variability in spring as the region transitions from cool season patterns to warming spring conditions, so a single date can see either unseasonably cool or warm outcomes. Long‑term warming trends have shifted the baseline upward, but short‑term synoptic patterns (ridges, troughs, fronts) are the dominant drivers of the max temperature on any given day. Check the event page for the specific observation station and resolution rules used by the market.
Market prices reflect collective expectations based on current forecasts and information but are not guaranteed outcomes; they update as new weather models and observations arrive. Use them alongside official meteorological forecasts and the event's stated resolution source to interpret likely outcomes.
The market will resolve based on the official observation source specified in the event rules — typically an accredited National Weather Service or other designated station within Phoenix. Consult the event description for the exact station or dataset the market uses for resolution.
Resolution is based on the local calendar date in Phoenix (the local 00:00–23:59 clock date). Phoenix remains on Mountain Standard Time year‑round; check the event rules to confirm the timezone used for resolution.
The event’s resolution rules will specify whether a single designated station is used or whether the highest official reading among selected stations within defined city limits is taken. If that detail is not clear, refer to the event page or contact the market operator before trading.
Forecast skill generally improves as lead time shortens; large synoptic features can be discernible several days out while meso‑scale details and timing solidify in the final 24–72 hours. Traders should monitor updated model runs and local forecasts as the date approaches.
Climate trends shift the baseline distribution toward warmer values over years and decades, which changes the background context for single‑day outcomes, but a specific day’s max temperature is still primarily determined by the immediate weather pattern and short‑term variability.