| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105° to 106° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° to 104° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 111° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 102° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 109° to 110° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 107° to 108° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix will be on March 21, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive planning, risk management, and for traders tracking near-term temperature extremes in a major desert city.
Phoenix has a desert climate with large day-to-day variability in spring controlled by synoptic-scale highs and lows; March is a transitional month when both mild and unusually warm days are possible. Long-term warming trends have raised baseline temperatures, but single-day extremes still depend primarily on short-term atmospheric patterns like upper-level ridging and clear-sky conditions.
Market odds aggregate participants' expectations and respond to new forecasts and observations; use them alongside meteorological model output and official observations rather than as a sole forecast.
The market's rules page specifies the official observing station and source used for settlement; many weather markets use National Weather Service (NOAA/NWS) station reports such as Phoenix Sky Harbor, but you must confirm the exact station and official data source on this event's market page.
The precise definition—typically the maximum 2‑meter air temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated station and any rounding convention—is given in the market's settlement rules; check those rules to see the time window and measurement conventions.
This event currently lists the close time as TBD; settlement normally occurs after the official observation is posted by the designated source and any verification window elapses. Consult the market page for announcements about the close time and settlement schedule.
Monitor the NWS forecast for Phoenix, medium- and short-range model runs (ECMWF, GFS, NAM), high-resolution models and rapid-updating systems (HRRR), ensemble spreads for uncertainty, satellite cloud-cover imagery, and local surface station observations and soundings for temperature profiles and timing of warming.
Use historical climatology as a baseline to assess how unusual a given forecast would be; examine recent March anomalies and the frequency of early-season heat events, but weigh that climatology with current synoptic forecasts since day-to-day extremes are driven by short-term atmospheric patterns.