| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 110° to 111° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 112° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 104° to 105° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 108° to 109° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 106° to 107° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks participants to pick which of six outcome ranges will contain the highest observed air temperature in Phoenix on March 20, 2026. It matters because it aggregates expectations about short-term weather conditions and seasonal warmth in a major desert city.
Phoenix sits in a hot, dry desert climate where spring is a transitional period: temperatures can swing from cool to unseasonably warm around the March equinox. Synoptic weather patterns, local effects like urban heat islanding, and recent precipitation all influence day-to-day variability; over decades, average temperatures have trended upward, shifting the baseline for spring warmth.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders about which temperature range will be realized and adjust as forecasts and observations change. Treat prices as a real‑time signal of consensus expectations, not as a guaranteed outcome.
The market will settle to the official measurement from the observing station or dataset specified in the contract description; check the market page to see which station or official data source (e.g., a NOAA/NWS station) is listed.
Typically it means the maximum air temperature recorded at the designated observing station during the local calendar day (00:00 to 23:59 local time) on March 20, 2026; the contract text specifies the measurement height and any rounding rules.
The six outcomes partition the possible temperature values into mutually exclusive ranges; the outcome whose range contains the official highest temperature will be declared the winner—see the market page for the exact numeric boundaries.
Closure time is shown on the market page and is currently listed as TBD; settlement occurs after the official temperature is released by the named data source and after any adjudication window the contract specifies.
Watch short‑range numerical weather predictions and ensemble spread, forecasts for frontal passages or ridging, cloud and precipitation forecasts, up‑to‑date observations from nearby stations, and any rapid changes in soil moisture or surface conditions.