| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89° to 90° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 88° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 97° or above | 3% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six predefined outcomes will correspond to the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 2, 2026. It matters because it aggregates trader expectations about short‑term weather and can reflect evolving forecast confidence for that specific day.
Phoenix has strong temperature variability from late winter into spring, so a single early‑March date can plausibly fall into several different temperature ranges depending on synoptic conditions. Prediction markets on daily high temperatures compress information from operational weather models, observations, and local pattern knowledge into a single, tradable price for each outcome.
Market prices indicate the crowd’s consensus about which outcome is most likely given available information and updates in real time; they are not official forecasts or guarantees. Traders should interpret prices as continuously updated signals that incorporate new model runs, satellite data, and observations.
The contract's settlement rules on KALSHI should specify the official data source and station (for example, an NWS/NOAA daily climate report or a specified airport observation). Refer to the event page or contract terms for the precise station and dataset used for settlement.
The contract will define the local time window (typically the calendar day in a specified local timezone, e.g., midnight to midnight local standard/daylight time) used to determine the maximum; check the market rules for the timezone and measurement period.
Outcomes are usually discrete temperature bins (non‑overlapping ranges) that cover the plausible span of highs for that date. Before trading, confirm the exact numeric boundaries of each outcome and whether endpoints are inclusive, as defined in the event description.
Forecasts start to gain useful signal about a specific day several days ahead, and confidence typically increases as you approach the date. Short‑range model runs, observational trends, and ensemble spread changes in the 1–3 days before Mar 2 will be most influential for prices.
Settlement authority and dispute procedures are specified in the market contract terms on KALSHI; they generally name an official source (e.g., NWS/NOAA) and provide a process for resolving ambiguities—consult those rules before participating.