| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107° to 108° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° to 104° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° to 102° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 109° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 105° to 106° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix will be on March 19, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive decisions (energy, event planning, health advisories) and reflects collective forecasts about that day's conditions.
Late-winter and early-spring temperatures in Phoenix are influenced by large-scale atmospheric patterns (ridging vs. troughs) and by local surface conditions; March can produce a wide range from cool to unseasonably warm days. Historical climatology provides a baseline, but short-term model forecasts and recent synoptic changes typically drive day-to-day variability.
Market prices aggregate participant views and available forecasts into implied odds; interpret them as the market’s consensus expectation that incorporates model output, climatology, and recent observations rather than a precise scientific forecast.
Settlement will follow the market’s published rules: it uses the officially reported highest temperature for the Phoenix calendar day (as measured at the specified station) after the relevant data are released and any verification window closes; check the contract page for the exact settlement timing and time zone.
The contract specifies the official observing station or dataset used for settlement (commonly the National Weather Service/ASOS station serving Phoenix); verify the market page to confirm the exact station identifier and data source.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature range or bin listed on the event page; consult the outcome labels on the market listing to see the exact numeric boundaries.
Changes in the timing or strength of an upper-level ridge or cold front, shifts in cloud cover or precipitation, sudden wind-direction changes (e.g., strong downslope winds), and rapid updates in model guidance within 48–72 hours of the date can materially change the expected maximum.
Use long-term March climatology and recent year-to-year variability as a baseline expectation, then weigh short-range model forecasts and ensemble uncertainty to assess how likely a given temperature range is for Mar 19, 2026.