| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101° to 102° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 103° to 104° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 107° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 105° to 106° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed air temperature will be in Phoenix on March 18, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-interested participants because daily maximums reflect short-term weather risk and seasonal transition in a major desert city.
Phoenix experiences large day-to-day temperature swings in March as the region transitions from cooler winter patterns to warmer spring conditions; synoptic-scale features like ridges, troughs, and frontal passages typically drive those swings. Recent years of climate warming have raised baseline temperatures, but individual days remain highly dependent on transient weather systems and local factors such as cloud cover and winds.
Market prices reflect traders’ collective expectations about which outcome bin will contain the official highest temperature for the specified date; interpret those prices as consensus forecasts, not guaranteed results. Settlement is based on the event’s published settlement source and rules rather than on ongoing market prices.
Settlement will follow the market's published settlement source and rules; typically that means the official temperature observation reported by the designated meteorological station or agency listed on the market page (check the market rules for the precise station or dataset).
The market uses the calendar day defined in the market’s settlement timezone—usually local Phoenix time (Mountain Standard Time, no DST for most of Arizona); verify the market rules for the exact 00:00–23:59 local-time window used for settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges or bins established by the market creator; see the market page for the exact numeric boundaries and labels that determine which bin wins once the official observation is published.
If the primary observation is missing or later adjusted, the market will follow its published fallback and adjudication procedures—commonly using official corrected records from the designated agency or a specified alternative station; consult the market’s settlement policy for specifics.
Use historical values to understand typical seasonal variability and how often extreme departures occur, but combine that with current forecasts (synoptic pattern, model guidance) and local factors—historical context helps form a baseline expectation but does not replace up-to-date weather information.