| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 101° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° to 100° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 17, 2026 will be; outcomes matter to people and businesses sensitive to daily maximum temperatures, such as energy providers, event organizers, and agriculture interests.
Phoenix sits in a hot, arid desert climate where early spring temperatures can swing widely depending on large-scale weather patterns. Seasonal factors (spring sun angle), short-term synoptic systems (ridges, troughs, fronts), and local effects (urban heat island, irrigation) all influence a single-day maximum. This market aggregates participant views about those influences into tradable outcomes.
Market prices reflect the collective expectations of participants about which outcome will occur and should be read as a summary of market sentiment rather than an official meteorological forecast; always check the contract for the exact data source and settlement rules before trading.
Settlement will follow the market contract's stated official data source and definition of 'highest temperature' (for example, the official National Weather Service observing station designated in the contract). Check the market description to confirm which station or dataset and the measurement method that will be used.
The relevant period is the local calendar day for Phoenix; Phoenix observes Mountain Standard Time year-round (no daylight saving), so the market will typically use 00:00 to 23:59 local Phoenix time unless the contract specifies otherwise—verify the exact timing in the contract details.
The exchange's published resolution and data fallback procedures govern such cases; common approaches include using a nearby official station, a post-processed dataset from NWS/NCEI, or following specific adjudication rules listed in the contract. Review the market’s settlement policy before participating.
Contracts specify whether endpoints are inclusive or exclusive and how ties are treated; check the outcome definitions in the market description to see which bin receives a boundary value and how decimals or rounding are handled.
Historical climatology provides a baseline expectation and shows the range of past variability for March 17, but single-day extremes can depart substantially from long-term averages due to short-term weather systems. Combine climatology with up-to-date operational weather models and observations (satellite, upper-air analyses) for a more informed view.