| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Phoenix on March 16, 2026, and is useful for anyone tracking near-term weather risk, seasonal trends, or hedging weather-sensitive exposures. Outcomes aggregate expectations about how local weather conditions will evolve on that specific day.
Mid-March in Phoenix is a seasonal transition from winter to spring, so daily highs are driven by the presence or absence of cool frontal intrusions versus warm, dry air masses and clear skies. Large-scale patterns such as the position of the Pacific jet stream and any ENSO-related influences can shift the baseline, while long-term warming trends have nudged seasonal baselines upward over decades.
Market prices reflect the collective assessment of which of the predefined temperature ranges is most consistent with current forecasts and uncertainty; they change as new model guidance and observations arrive. Interpret them as a real-time synthesis of available meteorological information, not a deterministic guarantee.
The specific observing site used for settlement is listed in the event's settlement rules; platforms commonly use an official National Weather Service ASOS or designated cooperative station for Phoenix (for example, the primary airport station), so check the event details to confirm the exact station.
The close time is listed as TBD on the event page; resolution occurs after March 16, 2026 once the official daily maximum from the designated station is published and any platform-specific verification window has passed—check the event rules for exact timing.
The six outcomes correspond to predefined temperature ranges (bins) that partition possible daily maximums; the outcome whose range contains the official maximum recorded on March 16, 2026 will be the settled result—see the event description for the exact numeric boundaries.
As the date approaches, higher-resolution models, ensemble forecasts, satellite imagery, and surface observations narrow uncertainty; key shifts such as the arrival time of a frontal passage or a sudden change in cloud cover can move expectations between adjacent outcome ranges.
Settlement follows the platform's stated policy on official data and revisions; if the designated data provider issues an official adjusted value and the platform's rules allow using that revision, the settled outcome can change accordingly—consult the event's settlement and revision policy for details.