| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 87° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 15, 2026 will be and is relevant to energy operators, event planners, and anyone tracking short-term weather risk in the region.
Phoenix has a hot desert climate with large day-to-night swings; mid-March is a transitional month when temperatures can vary substantially from year to year. Interannual drivers such as large-scale Pacific patterns (El Niño/La Niña), transient synoptic systems, and the urban heat island all influence the day’s maximum.
Market prices aggregate traders’ expectations about which temperature range will occur and will update as new model guidance, observations, and local conditions evolve; consult the event page for the precise resolution rules used to convert those expectations into a settled outcome.
The event will be settled according to the resolving authority and dataset specified on the Kalshi event page; in many Phoenix temperature markets this is the National Weather Service (NWS) official observation for the designated Phoenix station—verify the exact station and source in the event terms.
Resolution typically uses the calendar date in Phoenix local time (00:00–23:59 local standard time); note that Phoenix observes Mountain Standard Time year‑round, but confirm the exact time standard on the event’s resolution details.
Settlement occurs after the designated data provider publishes the official daily maximum and Kalshi processes that publication; the event page lists the resolving authority and any expected settlement timeframe, so check there for specifics.
Short- and medium-range model runs, satellite and radar updates, surface observations, and changes in ensemble guidance all shift traders’ expectations as the event approaches, so prices typically respond to new information about the anticipated synoptic setup and local conditions.
The event’s resolution rules define rounding and tie-breaking procedures (for example, whether values are used to the nearest whole degree or tenths); consult the event terms on Kalshi for the precise method that will be applied.