| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which discrete temperature outcome will be the highest observed in Phoenix on March 14, 2026; it matters for traders assessing short-term weather risk and for anyone following near-term climate variability in the region.
Phoenix temperatures in mid-March sit between cool spring conditions and the onset of the warmer season, so outcomes depend strongly on synoptic-scale patterns rather than seasonal climatology alone. Short-term anomalies — for example an amplified ridge, a passing trough, or late-season frontal passage — can push the day well above or below typical March values. Settlement will rely on an official observing source, so institutional reporting and station operations also matter.
Market odds reflect the collective assessment of participants about which discrete temperature bin will contain the observed daily maximum; interpret odds as a dynamic signal about expectation and uncertainty rather than a fixed forecast or deterministic outcome.
Settlement will use the official observing source specified in the market rules—typically the NOAA/NWS climate station that serves Phoenix (check the market page for the exact station and source used for this event).
The market will be settled after the official daily maximum temperature for March 14 is published by the designated source; exact timing depends on when that agency posts its verified daily summary and KALSHI's settlement procedures.
The six outcomes correspond to pre-defined temperature intervals (discrete bins) listed on the market page; consult the event description on the platform to see the exact numeric thresholds that define each outcome.
Unusual conditions do not change the settlement method: outcome is based on the official reported maximum from the designated station; if an instrument malfunction or data gap occurs, the market’s published resolution rules explain whether a nearby station or alternative dataset will be used.
Use historical March climatology as a baseline for typical conditions but weigh it alongside short-term forecasts, synoptic model guidance, and real-time observations because day-to-day weather patterns (e.g., ridging or frontal passages) are the primary drivers of a single-day maximum.