| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 97° to 98° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 99° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain Phoenix's highest observed temperature on March 13, 2026. It matters for traders, weather observers, and anyone tracking short-term temperature extremes in the Phoenix area.
Phoenix is in a seasonal transition in March, when daily highs can swing from cool to warm depending on the presence of high pressure, frontal passages, or strong advection. Long-term warming and the urban heat island affect baseline temperatures, but individual-day outcomes are driven by short-term weather patterns and synoptic-scale setup. Market participants will be weighing both climatology and near-term model forecasts when making bets.
Market odds represent the collective market view of which predefined temperature range will contain the day's maximum, not a guaranteed outcome. Consult the contract's resolution rules on KALSHI for the authoritative procedure and source used to determine the official highest temperature.
The market's resolution rules on KALSHI will specify the official reporting station and dataset; commonly these markets use the National Weather Service official station for Phoenix (for example the ASOS at Phoenix Sky Harbor) and the maximum observation recorded for the local calendar day, but you must confirm the contract's exact source.
Resolution typically follows the local calendar day as defined in the contract (midnight to 23:59:59 local Phoenix time), and because Phoenix does not observe daylight saving time the market will use Mountain Standard Time (UTC−7) unless the contract specifies otherwise—check the contract for the definitive time window.
This market's six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature bins defined on the contract page; whichever bin contains the officially reported maximum temperature for Phoenix on March 13, 2026 will be the winning outcome—refer to the market page for the exact bin edges.
Tie-breaking or resolution of identical readings is governed by the contract's resolution rules; common approaches include taking the highest recorded value at the specified station or using the official hourly/daily summary from the reporting authority—consult the market documentation for the procedure used here.
Large-scale climate patterns and long-term warming shift seasonal background probabilities and can bias the distribution of daily highs, but the highest temperature on a single date is primarily determined by short-term weather patterns (synoptic and mesoscale), so participants should consider both seasonal context and up-to-date forecast models.