| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 93° to 94° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 95° to 96° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 91° to 92° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 89° to 90° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Phoenix on March 12, 2026 will be; it matters because daily temperature extremes affect energy use, public-health planning, and local operations in the Phoenix area.
Phoenix has a desert climate with large day-to-day variability in spring as the region transitions out of winter; seasonal expectations for early March differ from late-spring and summer patterns. Long-term warming trends increase the frequency of warm extremes, but the realized maximum on a single date is driven mainly by short-term weather patterns and local conditions.
Market prices summarize collective expectations for which outcome will occur and change as forecasts and new observations arrive; interpret them as a real-time consensus signal rather than a fixed meteorological forecast.
The market will resolve to the official temperature observation specified in the market's resolution text; in practice this is typically the National Weather Service daily maximum for the designated Phoenix observing station (often Phoenix Sky Harbor ASOS), but you should check the market's resolution language for the exact source and any fallbacks.
Resolution occurs after the designated authority publishes the official daily maximum for March 12, 2026; the final value will be available via the market's resolution announcement and the official observing-station data or NWS daily climate summary.
The event uses the local date at the official observing station to determine March 12, 2026; Arizona does not observe daylight saving time, so the local date for Phoenix is unambiguous for that calendar day.
If the designated station experiences failure or quality-control issues, resolution will follow the fallback and correction procedures spelled out in the market's rules — typically substitution of an alternative official nearby station or use of a corrected NWS summary.
Factors that favor a higher maximum include a pronounced surface ridge or heat-amplifying pattern, strong warm-air advection from the south, clear skies allowing strong solar insolation, and dry antecedent conditions; the opposite conditions would favor lower maxima.