| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 83° to 84° | 66% | 59¢ | 66¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 85° to 86° | 6% | 6¢ | 16¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 81° to 82° | 20% | 19¢ | 30¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 89° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 2¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 87° to 88° | 3% | 3¢ | 5¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed outcome ranges will contain the highest recorded air temperature in Phoenix on Mar 11, 2026. It matters to traders and observers who want a real‑time signal about short‑term weather risk and local spring temperature conditions.
Prediction markets for daily temperatures combine operational weather forecasts, observations from official stations, and trader expectations. Phoenix is served by well‑maintained meteorological stations (often NWS/ASOS sites) and daily maximums are routinely recorded and published; this event has six discrete outcomes and moderate liquidity on KALSHI, with settlement rules defined on the event page.
Market odds reflect how traders collectively price which outcome range they expect the day's maximum to fall into; they update as model forecasts, observations, and new information arrive. Use the odds as a short‑term consensus signal while confirming the exchange's stated data source and settlement rules.
Close time is shown on the KALSHI event page (currently listed as TBD); settlement will occur after the exchange receives the official daily maximum for Phoenix on Mar 11, 2026 per KALSHI's stated timeline and procedures—check the event page for the post‑event settlement window.
The event description on KALSHI will specify the official station or data source (commonly an NWS/ASOS station such as Phoenix Sky Harbor or another designated site). If not explicit, consult KALSHI's settlement rules to identify the primary and backup sources used for temperature events.
‘Highest temperature’ means the maximum air temperature recorded at the specified official station during the local calendar day. Phoenix remains on Mountain Standard Time year‑round, so the local 00:00–23:59 day is in MST unless the event rules state otherwise.
Historical March 11 data give context on typical variability and how often unusually warm or cool days occur, but they don't predict a single day outcome alone. Combine climatology with current numerical weather model forecasts and recent observations for better short‑term assessment.
KALSHI's settlement policy will describe fallback options—common approaches include using a pre‑specified alternate official station, automated network data, or final NWS daily summaries. Any disputes or unusual data issues are handled per the exchange's dispute resolution process; consult the event rules and contact KALSHI support if needed.