| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77° to 78° | 99% | 95¢ | 99¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 81° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 79° to 80° | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $7K | Trade → |
| 72° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest recorded in Phoenix on March 10, 2026; it matters to traders and weather-interested participants because it aggregates forecasts and real-world observations about a specific daily weather extreme.
Phoenix has a strongly seasonal climate with large day-to-day swings in early spring driven by shifting storm tracks and occasional warm surges from the south. Long-term trends and seasonal modes (e.g., El Niño/La Niña phases) can shift the distribution of daily highs, but individual-day outcomes are dominated by short-term synoptic patterns and local factors.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants about which outcome range will be realized; they are not guarantees but provide a real-time summary of available information and sentiment. Interpret them alongside weather model outputs and official observing procedures described in the contract.
The contract should specify the settling data source; many Phoenix measurements reference the National Weather Service/NOAA official station (commonly the Phoenix Sky Harbor ASOS) or NWS daily summaries. Check the market's settlement rules to confirm the authoritative source.
Typically it means the single highest standardized air temperature observation recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) at the designated official station, using standard meteorological instruments and rounding conventions noted in the contract; confirm the exact definition in the event description.
Yes — if the settlement relies on an official dataset that is later adjusted during quality control, the final settled value may reflect those revisions. The market's settlement policy will state whether post-event adjustments are considered and for how long data can be revised.
Follow the latest runs of global and regional models (ECMWF, GFS, NAM), ensemble spreads, satellite imagery, surface observational trends from Phoenix-area stations, and NWS forecasts and discussions; rapid shifts in model consensus in the 48–72 hour window often matter most.
The event page lists the closure and settlement policy; if the close time is 'TBD' you should monitor the market for an announced cut-off. Settlement normally occurs after the official daily maximum is available from the designated observing source, per the contract's rules.