| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 85° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 3, 2026. It serves as a localized hedge against meteorological volatility and climate variability in the Southwestern United States.
Phoenix frequently experiences significant temperature swings during the spring transition as the region moves toward the extreme heat of summer. Historically, early April temperatures can vary widely depending on the presence of high-pressure ridges or cooling Pacific storm systems. Traders look to long-range climate models and regional weather patterns to forecast these specific daily peaks.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of how the specific weather conditions on that date will deviate from historical averages.
The official temperature is typically determined by the data recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, the primary National Weather Service observation site for the region.
April is a transitional month; it can see mild, pleasant temperatures or premature heat waves where temperatures climb well above seasonal norms.
The market relies on the official, finalized data released by the National Weather Service, regardless of whether extreme or unusual weather conditions occur.
Yes, Phoenix has seen temperatures reach into the high 90s or occasionally triple digits in early April, though these represent the upper tail of historical distributions.
No, this market specifically tracks the daily maximum temperature recorded during the 24-hour period of April 3, 2026.