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Climate and Weather OPEN

Highest temperature in Phoenix on Apr 21, 2026?

📊 $0 traded 🏦 Source: Kalshi
Total Volume
$0
Open Interest
0
Active Markets
6
Markets
6

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All Outcomes (6)
Outcome Probability Yes Bid Yes Ask 24h Change Volume
92° or below 0%
$0 Trade →
93° to 94° 0%
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95° to 96° 0%
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97° to 98° 0%
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99° to 100° 0%
$0 Trade →
101° or above 0%
$0 Trade →

About This Market

This market tracks the official daily maximum temperature recorded in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 21, 2026. Monitoring localized weather extremes is essential for assessing regional climate variability and impacts on urban infrastructure and energy demand.

Phoenix is characterized by a hot desert climate, where spring temperatures can fluctuate significantly based on seasonal transition patterns. Historically, late April marks a period where daily highs often transition from mild spring warmth to early-season heat waves. Meteorological data from the National Weather Service provides the definitive record for these measurements.

Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders regarding the likelihood of the daily high falling into specific temperature ranges, anchored to historical climatological norms.

Key Factors

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the official source for the temperature reading?

The official daily maximum temperature is determined by data reported by the National Weather Service (NWS) for Phoenix, Arizona.

How does the desert climate influence this outcome?

Phoenix's desert environment can lead to significant diurnal temperature swings, making the precise daily peak sensitive to localized cloud cover and wind shifts.

What happens if there is a reporting error or station change?

The market relies on standard reporting from the designated official meteorological observation station for Phoenix as recognized by the NWS.

Does this market consider the average temperature or the peak?

This market specifically tracks the 'highest temperature' or daily maximum, which is the single highest reading recorded in a 24-hour period.

How does the date affect the probability distribution?

April 21 represents a shoulder season in Arizona; the distribution of possible outcomes accounts for the transition from spring to summer heat patterns.

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