| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 83° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 84° to 85° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 86° to 87° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 88° to 89° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 90° to 91° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 2, 2026. It serves as a localized hedge against extreme weather outcomes for those interested in meteorological trends and climate volatility.
Phoenix is characterized by a desert climate that typically begins to transition into hotter conditions by early April. Historical data indicates significant variability in early spring temperatures, influenced by shifting high-pressure systems and regional moisture patterns. Analysts monitor atmospheric indicators like El Niño or La Niña cycles to gauge potential deviations from long-term seasonal averages.
Market prices represent the aggregate sentiment regarding the likelihood of the daily high falling into specific temperature brackets.
The market settles based on official temperature data provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) for Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
April in Phoenix is a shoulder season where temperatures can range from mild, comfortable highs to early-onset heat waves exceeding historical averages.
Forecasters typically monitor the positioning of the subtropical ridge, which, if situated over the Southwest, can lead to unseasonably high temperatures.
The market rules specify rounding conventions, usually tied to the precision of the official NWS reporting, to ensure a single winning outcome.
Yes, the measurement is restricted to the 24-hour period corresponding to April 2, 2026, based on local time in Phoenix.