| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 92° to 93° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 94° to 95° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 96° to 97° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 98° to 99° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 100° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market tracks the official daily high temperature recorded at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport on April 19, 2026. It serves as a localized hedge or speculative instrument for climate-conscious participants interested in Arizona’s spring weather patterns.
Phoenix experiences significant temperature volatility during April as the region transitions from mild spring conditions to the intense heat of summer. Historically, daily highs can vary widely depending on the presence of high-pressure ridges or cooling systems moving through the Southwest. Meteorologists utilize historical meteorological data and long-range seasonal climate models to estimate shifts in regional desert heating.
The market prices reflect the collective anticipation of weather models and historical climate averages, providing a snapshot of what traders expect the atmospheric conditions to be on that specific date.
The official high temperature is typically sourced from the National Weather Service (NWS) recordings at Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport.
Phoenix's density of concrete and asphalt retains heat, often causing nighttime lows and daytime highs to remain higher than surrounding desert areas, which is reflected in the official airport readings.
April represents the threshold between comfortable spring temperatures and the start of the pre-monsoon heat, making the exact daily high difficult to forecast months in advance.
Market outcomes generally rely on the official certified data released by the National Weather Service; if the primary sensor fails, secondary official NWS data from the same location is usually utilized.
Long-term warming trends in the Southwest have shifted the historical range of temperatures, which market participants must account for when weighing the probability of extreme heat versus moderate spring weather.