| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $24K | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Philadelphia on March 9, 2026; it aggregates trader expectations about a one‑day weather outcome that can inform short‑term planning and risk assessments.
March is a transitional month in the Mid‑Atlantic, so daily highs can swing widely depending on air mass placement, frontal passages, and coastal influences. This market has six discrete outcome ranges; participants should review the contract description for the exact bin boundaries and settlement rules.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s view of which outcome range is most likely to contain the day’s maximum temperature; they are a real‑time summary of consensus expectations and change as new weather information arrives.
Settlement follows the specific data source named in the market contract; commonly this is the National Weather Service/ASOS or METAR observation for the official Philadelphia station — check the contract’s settlement clause to see the exact station and dataset used.
The market will use the observation period defined in the contract (typically the local calendar day or a specific 24‑hour METAR/ASOS window); consult the contract’s settlement rules for the precise start and end times and time zone.
Close time is listed as TBD on the event page; final settlement generally occurs after the authoritative observations for March 9 are published and available, with the settlement timing and procedures specified in the contract.
Key short‑range signals are model forecasts for frontal timing, mesoscale features (coastal lows, convective clouds), sudden changes in cloud cover or wind direction, and updates to snow‑cover analyses that affect surface warming.
Missing or flagged observations, station outages, instrument malfunctions, or ambiguous time stamps can occur; the contract’s dispute and contingency provisions describe fallback data sources and adjudication procedures that determine final settlement.