| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest measured in Philadelphia on March 8, 2026. It matters to traders and weather-aware stakeholders because short-term temperature outcomes are driven by rapidly changing atmospheric conditions and can be hedged or speculated on in real time.
March is a transitional month in the mid-Atlantic, so outcomes can swing between cool, seasonable conditions and occasional mild spells depending on large-scale patterns. Forecasts will evolve as short-range models and surface observations update in the days and hours before March 8.
Market odds reflect the crowd’s consensus expectation about which temperature range will be observed and will update as new model runs and observations arrive; they are not fixed forecasts but a real-time aggregation of information and sentiment.
The result is determined by the official highest observed air temperature for the designated Philadelphia reporting station on March 8, 2026, as specified in the contract’s resolution source. Consult the contract terms on the market page to see the named official data source (typically the NWS station used for Philadelphia).
The market uses the local date for Philadelphia (Eastern Time) per the contract’s rules; in practice that means the highest temperature recorded during the official 24‑hour period defined by the resolver. Check the contract text for the exact start/end times and any conventions used for that date.
This market offers six mutually exclusive temperature outcome bins that partition the possible highest temperatures for the day. The specific numeric boundaries for those bins are listed on the market page; outcomes resolve to the single bin that contains the official observed maximum.
Short‑range numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and their ensembles (e.g., global and regional runs), surface observations, satellite/cloud imagery, and real‑time station reports will drive price adjustments, especially within a few days and hours of the target date.
Yes — if the official observing station reports are later adjusted for quality control, or if the contract names a specific station that has documented issues, those factors can affect the final reported maximum. The market resolves to the official published value from the named resolver and follows any dispute or adjustment procedures in the contract.