| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53° or below | 56% | 59¢ | 66¢ | — | $31K | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $19K | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 2% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 8% | 9¢ | 12¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 26% | 26¢ | 27¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 7, 2026. It matters to weather-sensitive decision makers and to anyone tracking short-term climate variability for that specific date.
Early March in Philadelphia is climatologically transitional, so outcomes can range from late-winter cold to unseasonably mild days depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Short-term shifts in the jet stream, fronts, or anomalous warm advection can produce large day-to-day swings. The market will ultimately resolve to the official observation specified in the market's rules, so knowing the designated station and reporting practices matters.
Market odds summarize traders' aggregated expectations for which temperature bracket will be the daily maximum; treat them as a real-time consensus that can change as observations and model guidance update.
The market resolves to the official highest temperature recorded during the calendar date March 7, 2026, at the observation site specified in the market rules; resolution occurs after the platform accepts and verifies the official observational record for that date.
The market's resolution rules list the exact observing station (typically the National Weather Service official station or designated airport instrument); consult the market metadata or rules page to confirm the station identifier and location.
Synoptic-scale features (cold fronts, high pressure) usually become useful several days ahead, model agreement and observational assimilation in the 48–72 hour window provide the best actionable information, while longer-range guidance is more uncertain and subject to revision.
Yes—cloud cover and precipitation suppress daytime heating and typically lower peak temperatures, while sunshine and dry southerly advection can raise the maximum; small changes in timing of clouds or rain can change which bracket is realized.
Review the designated station's location, elevation, and surroundings because airport tarmacs, nearby buildings, or urban heat islands can bias daytime maxima; factor in local wind patterns and any known quirks of the reporting station when forming a view.