| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $88K | Trade → |
| 52° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 36% | 22¢ | 33¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 48% | 42¢ | 43¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 17% | 18¢ | 23¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 3% | 2¢ | 7¢ | — | $5K | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 6, 2026; outcomes pay based on which temperature range is ultimately observed. This matters because single‑day temperature extremes affect energy demand, public health responses, and short‑term weather risk planning.
Philadelphia in early March sits in a transitional season where temperatures can swing rapidly depending on the position of upper‑level ridges, troughs, and surface fronts. The market is resolved against an official observing source and is binned into six discrete outcome ranges, so both synoptic setup and the exact timing of warm or cold advection on March 6 will heavily influence which bin is realized.
Market prices reflect the crowd’s evolving assessment of which outcome range is most likely given current forecasts and information; they update as new model runs and observations arrive. Interpret prices as a relative, real‑time signal of market conviction rather than a fixed forecast of the exact temperature.
Settlement will use the official observing source specified in the market’s rules—typically a National Weather Service/NOAA station designated for Philadelphia; consult the market description for the precise station and data feed used for settlement.
The market resolves on the official local calendar day defined in the settlement rules (generally 00:00–23:59 local time for March 6, 2026); check the event’s rules to confirm the exact observation interval and time zone treatment.
Tie‑breaking and bin boundary conventions are defined in the market’s settlement terms (for example, whether boundaries are inclusive of the lower or upper value); review the published settlement rules to see which convention applies.
Settlement is based on the official post‑event observations from the designated source (archived instrument data or official NWS preliminary/quality‑controlled values as specified); model forecasts and unofficial live reports are not used for final resolution unless explicitly stated in the rules.
Examine historical climatology and past March 6 records (daily normals, typical variability, and extreme highs) from NWS/NCEI to understand the climatological framing; combine that with current synoptic forecasts to assess whether conditions favor an unusually warm or cool outcome on March 6, 2026.