| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50° or below | 99% | 97¢ | 98¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $12K | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | — | $10K | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $9K | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $3K | Trade → |
| 59° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $2K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature category will be the highest observed in Philadelphia on March 4, 2026; it matters because traders aggregate weather forecasts and observations to express expectations about short-term temperature outcomes. The result has practical relevance for energy demand, travel planning, and local operations sensitive to temperature extremes.
Early March is a transitional period in the Mid-Atlantic with frequent swings between cold and mild conditions driven by passing fronts, coastal systems, and continental air masses. Philadelphia's observed temperature on a single day can be strongly affected by synoptic setup, cloud cover, and urban effects, so historical variability is substantial. This market offers six discrete outcomes (predefined temperature bins) that partition the range of plausible highs for that date — consult the contract for the exact bin boundaries and units.
Market prices reflect the crowd's current assessment of which temperature bin is most likely, and they move as new model runs and observations arrive. Treat prices as real-time market signals, not guarantees; always check the market's settlement rules for how the final outcome will be determined.
Settlement is based on the official observing source named in the market contract (typically an NWS/ASOS station or other specified station). Check the event page or contract text on KALSHI to see the named station and data source used for resolution.
Most contracts define 'on the date' as the local calendar day from 00:00:00 to 23:59:59 local time at the designated station, but you should verify the exact time window and time zone in the event's settlement rules.
They are discrete temperature bins that cover different ranges of the highest observed temperature for the day. The contract specifies the exact numerical boundaries and units (e.g., degrees Fahrenheit or Celsius).
The market's contract contains contingency and tie-breaker rules—common approaches include using the nearest official station, provisional NWS data, or a quality-controlled backup dataset. If data issues arise, follow the published resolution policy on the event page or contact KALSHI support.
Traders typically monitor national model suites (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, regional models), high-resolution mesoscale guidance, NWS forecast discussions and advisories, current surface observations, radar/satellite trends, and short-term nowcasts that refine frontal timing and cloud cover.