| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46° to 47° | 3% | 3¢ | 4¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 48° or above | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 90% | 89¢ | 92¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
| 40° to 41° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $11K | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 10% | 9¢ | 12¢ | — | $6K | Trade → |
| 39° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $4K | Trade → |
This market asks which of six temperature outcomes will be the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 3, 2026. It matters to participants who care about weather on that date (energy, travel, event planning) because it summarizes collective expectations for the day's peak temperature.
Early March is a transitional month in the northeastern U.S., so daily highs can be influenced by either lingering winter air masses or early-season warm spells. Philadelphia's observed maximum depends on large-scale weather systems (e.g., frontal passages, coastal storms) and local factors such as urban heat and snow cover. The market settles to the official observation reported for the designated Philadelphia station specified in the contract rules.
Market odds represent the collective view of traders about which temperature range will be realized, and they update as forecasts, model runs, and observations change. Interpret them as a dynamic summary of expectations rather than a deterministic prediction; always compare with official meteorological forecasts and the settlement source.
The market will settle to the official reporting station named in the contract's settlement rules. Many U.S. city temperature contracts use the National Weather Service/NOAA station serving the city (commonly the airport METAR site), so check this specific market's rules for the designated station.
Unless the contract states otherwise, 'on Mar 3, 2026' refers to the calendar date in Philadelphia local time (midnight through 23:59 local time). Note that March 3, 2026 falls before the U.S. daylight saving change, so local time will be Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00).
Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range or threshold listed on the market page. After the official maximum temperature for the designated station is published by the cited source, the outcome whose range contains that value is declared the winner per the settlement rules.
Settlement timing depends on when the designated data provider posts the official daily maximum. Markets typically wait for the official daily summary or NWS/NCEI record and settle after that publication; consult the market's settlement policy for the exact timeframe.
Changes in the forecast track or timing of fronts and low-pressure systems, sudden shifts in air mass origin (e.g., a late warm surge or Arctic intrusion), cloud cover trends, and unexpected precipitation or snow cover can all materially change the expected daily maximum for March 3.