| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Philadelphia on March 29, 2026; outcomes matter because daily maximum temperature affects energy demand, travel, and outdoor event planning. Trading aggregates participant expectations about that single-day weather outcome.
Late March in Philadelphia is a transitional period from winter to spring, so temperatures can swing widely depending on the passage of cold fronts, coastal storms, or warm air intrusions. Philadelphia's climate is influenced by continental air masses, proximity to the Atlantic Ocean, and urban heat island effects; long-term warming trends can shift seasonal baselines but day-to-day weather is mainly controlled by synoptic-scale patterns.
Market prices reflect the collective judgment of traders about which outcome will match the observed maximum temperature on that date; treat prices as a dynamic, real-time consensus signal to compare with official forecasts and climatology. Because conditions and forecasts change, prices will update as new model runs and observations become available.
The event page and contract rules list the official verification source and station used for settlement; check the market's 'Source' or 'Settlement' section to see which observing network (for example, an official National Weather Service station) and which specific station are specified for this event.
The contract defines how the maximum is measured (for example, the highest reported air temperature during the local calendar date at the designated station, measured at the standard height and rounded according to the settlement rules); consult the event's settlement text for the precise definition and units.
The market closing time is shown on the event page (this specific listing currently shows 'Closes: TBD'); settlement typically occurs after the official observational data for the date are published and verified per the contract's settlement window—refer to the event page for exact timing.
Those six outcomes partition the possible range of maximum temperatures into discrete buckets with defined numeric boundaries and units; the event page lists each outcome's temperature range—review those boundaries before placing trades.
Use recent deterministic model forecasts and ensemble spreads in the days leading up to Mar 29 to capture short-term synoptic influences, and weigh those against late‑March climatological normals and local effects (urban heat island, coastal moderation). Update your assessment as model runs and observations evolve and consult the event's specified verification source so your forecast maps to the contract's definition.