| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 42° to 43° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 44° to 45° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest recorded in Philadelphia on March 28, 2026; it matters for short-term planning, energy demand, and understanding local weather variability on that date.
Late March in the Philadelphia area is a transitional period when air masses from the Arctic, continental interior, or subtropical Atlantic can produce a wide range of daily maximum temperatures. Year-to-year variability is large because synoptic-scale storms, cold snaps, or early-season warm spells can all dominate the day-to-day outcome. Increasing background climate variability can also influence the frequency of unusually warm or cool days in the region.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation about which outcome will be observed but should be read alongside official forecast products (NWS, model guidance) and the market's posted resolution rules. Prices can change rapidly as new model runs, observations, or synoptic developments occur in the days before March 28.
Resolution procedures are set by the market operator; typically the outcome is determined using the official daily maximum temperature reported by the National Weather Service or the designated official station for Philadelphia on Mar 28 local time. Check the market's resolution rules for the exact station, observation period, and any tie-breaking procedures.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range or specific value bracket for the highest observed temperature on that date as defined on the event page; only one outcome can be true based on the official observation used for resolution.
Markets of this type commonly use the National Weather Service's official station for the city (for Philadelphia, often the ASOS/COOP station at the designated airport or the NWS official climate site). The event's rules will name the precise station or dataset—refer to those rules for certainty.
Longer-range pattern guidance gives a sense of risk weeks out, but forecast confidence and detail typically increase within the week before the date and especially in the 72 hours prior when high-resolution and ensemble models better capture timing of fronts, cloud cover, and storms.
Late-arriving cloud cover or precipitation, a late passage of a cold front or warm advection, sudden wind-direction shifts, or lingering snow/ice cover that reduces insolation can each change the daily maximum enough to move the result from one bracket to another; the exact sensitivity depends on the narrowness of the outcome ranges.