| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature will be the highest recorded in Philadelphia on March 27, 2026; it matters because daily peak temperature influences energy demand, public health messaging, and short-term weather-sensitive decisions.
Late March is a transitional period in Philadelphia when cold-season systems and early-season warmth both influence conditions, producing large day-to-day swings. Historical variability around this date can be substantial due to the timing of spring cold fronts, nor'easters, or early warm spells, and those patterns shape trader views on this market.
Market prices summarize the crowd’s current expectations for which temperature outcome will occur and update as new observations and forecasts arrive; interpret them as a snapshot of collective information, not a deterministic forecast.
The market will resolve according to the official resolution rules posted on the event page; typically that means the highest verified temperature recorded by the designated official observing station for Philadelphia on the calendar date in local time, so check the event's resolution details to confirm the source and measurement convention.
If the event page lists 'TBD' for close time, the exchange will announce the final trading deadline before expiration; monitor the market page and exchange notifications for the posted close time.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature range or bucket listed on the market page; only one outcome can resolve as true based on the recorded highest temperature and the exchange's resolution rules.
Useful inputs include short-range numerical weather prediction models (0–72 hour guidance), high-resolution local models, official National Weather Service forecasts and hourly observations, satellite/radar for cloud cover and precipitation timing, and recent surface station trends.
If primary data are unavailable, the market will follow the exchange's contingency and dispute procedures described on the event page; that often includes using an alternate official source or relying on adjudication by the exchange according to their published resolution policy.