| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bucket will be the highest observed in Philadelphia on March 26, 2026; it matters for traders who want to express views about short-term weather variability and for anyone tracking near-term climate extremes in an urban area.
Late March is a transitional period in the Mid-Atlantic when synoptic-scale patterns can produce either cool, damp conditions or unseasonable warmth; day-to-day outcomes are strongly driven by the position of fronts and large-scale ridges or troughs. Historical records show substantial year-to-year variability for individual dates, and long-term warming trends and urban effects can shift the baseline but do not eliminate short-term meteorological drivers.
Market odds aggregate traders’ views about which temperature range will be the daily maximum; they move as new weather model guidance, observations, and forecasts become available and should be read as a dynamic consensus, not a guaranteed forecast.
Settlement will follow the contract’s definition: usually the highest official air temperature reported for the calendar date (local Eastern Time) at the specified observing site or dataset named on the event page; check the event page for the precise settlement definition.
The event contract specifies the official data source and/or observing station used for settlement; KALSHI events typically reference an NWS/NOAA or other authoritative local station or dataset—see the event page to confirm which one applies to this market.
The event page lists the trading close time (currently TBD) and the settlement policy; final settlement typically awaits the publication of the official daily observation for that date, so settlement timing depends on when the specified data provider releases its daily summary.
This market’s six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature buckets or categories defined on the event page; each outcome covers a distinct range for the day’s maximum temperature—consult the contract page for the exact boundaries.
Traders should consider climatological variability for late March (frequent swings between cool and warm regimes), past instances of late-season warm spells and cold snaps, recent multi-year trends that affect baseline temperatures, and how urban and coastal influences alter daily maxima for the city.