| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This prediction market asks which temperature range will be the highest reading recorded in Philadelphia on March 25, 2026. It matters because it aggregates expectations about the day’s weather and can reflect evolving forecasts and local climate variability.
Late March is a transitional period in the Mid-Atlantic when cold air intrusions and early warm spells both remain possible; single-day highs can swing widely depending on large-scale weather patterns. Historical March temperatures in Philadelphia show substantial year-to-year variability, so market prices will respond to short-term model guidance and synoptic changes as the date approaches.
Market odds represent traders’ collective expectations about which temperature range is most likely, updating as new meteorological data and forecasts arrive; they are not guaranteed forecasts but useful near-real-time signals of how probabilities shift with information.
Settlement will rely on the official temperature observation source specified in the market rules; typically this is a designated NOAA/NWS observing station for Philadelphia (check the market contract text for the exact station and data product).
The market will use the time window defined in its contract language—usually the local calendar date from 00:00 to 23:59 local time at the designated observation site—so consult the event’s settlement rules for the precise definition.
Watch synoptic-scale model runs (GFS, ECMWF), short-range ensembles, surface observations and satellite/radar trends; key changes in frontal timing, cloud cover, and wind direction in forecast updates can materially alter the expected high for that day.
Historical values show the climatological range and help identify how extreme a given outcome would be for that date, but market prices will react primarily to current forecasts and near-term observational evidence rather than long-term averages alone.
The contract’s settlement provisions will specify alternate procedures—common approaches include using an approved backup station or an official corrected dataset from the responsible meteorological agency; check the market’s resolution rules for the exact contingency policy.