| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict the highest air temperature measured in Philadelphia on March 24, 2026. It matters for weather-sensitive decision-makers and for anyone tracking short-term climate variability or planning outdoor activities that day.
Late March is a transitional month in the Mid-Atlantic, where synoptic-scale systems can produce either unseasonably warm spells or late-season cool snaps. Day-to-day outcomes depend heavily on the timing of fronts, cloud cover, and mesoscale features; longer-term climate trends shift the baseline but do not determine a single day’s value.
Market odds indicate the market’s aggregated view of which temperature outcome is most likely relative to the others; treat them as a consensus signal to be combined with official observations and model guidance rather than a deterministic forecast.
Settlement is based on the official definition in the contract: the maximum air temperature measured at the specified official observation site and time window. Consult the market’s contract specs for the exact station, instrument, and observation interval used for settlement.
The market’s contract specifies the exact station or dataset; many weather contracts use the National Weather Service’s official observation site for the city (commonly the Philadelphia International Airport station), but you must check the event page for the authoritative source.
Trading close is listed as TBD on the event page; settlement will occur after the official observations for March 24, 2026 are published and in accordance with the contract’s settlement timing—check the market page for final deadlines and settlement timing once posted.
Review station climatology and past March 24 recordings to understand typical variability and extremes, then combine that baseline with current seasonal trends and recent temperature anomalies to form a contextual forecast for the date.
In the medium to short range, consult global and regional deterministic models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS, NAM), ensemble forecasts for uncertainty, and high-resolution mesoscale models and latest surface observations, radar, and satellite imagery in the 0–5 day window before the event.