| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks traders to predict which of six outcome bins will contain the highest observed temperature in Philadelphia on March 23, 2026. It matters for people and organizations tracking seasonal transitions, local event planning, and testing forecasting methods against collective judgment.
Late March in Philadelphia is a transitional period with large day-to-day variability as winter air masses compete with early spring warming. Typical climatology shows moderate highs for the month, but warm spells or late cold intrusions can push temperatures well above or below average; synoptic-scale patterns (storms, ridges, troughs) drive those swings. Markets like this aggregate forecast information and public expectations into a single, tradable indicator.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation about which temperature bin will be realized on that date; they update as new forecasts, model runs, and observations become available. Treat odds as a real-time consensus signal that can change with evolving meteorological information rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The market will settle based on the official observing station specified on the contract page; if not otherwise specified, markets of this type typically use the National Weather Service's official Philadelphia station observations (the primary local airport or designated NWS station) as the authoritative source for the day's maximum temperature.
The relevant period is the local calendar day for Philadelphia (00:00 to 23:59 local time) on March 23, 2026, as recorded by the official observing network used for settlement; confirm the market page for any alternate resolution timing.
Each of the six outcomes corresponds to a predefined temperature bin or range listed on the market page; traders choose the bin they expect will contain the day's maximum—check the contract details for the exact boundaries that determine outcome resolution.
Forecast changes—new model runs, updated surface analyses, or observations that alter the expected timing of fronts or cloud cover—can shift trader expectations and therefore market prices; larger synoptic shifts (e.g., a sudden warm ridge or an advancing cold front) typically produce the biggest price movements.
Historical climatology and past March extremes provide context about the range of plausible outcomes, but the actual result is driven by the synoptic setup for March 23, 2026; traders often combine long-term averages, recent trends, and current model analogs to form an expectation for this specific date.