| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 77° to 78° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° to 74° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 79° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 75° to 76° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 22, 2026 will be. It matters to traders hedging weather exposure and to anyone tracking early‑spring temperature variability in the mid‑Atlantic.
Late March in Philadelphia can produce a wide range of outcomes—from cool, damp conditions to unseasonably warm days—because synoptic patterns (cold fronts, ridges, coastal influences) change rapidly at this time of year. Local climatology, the timing of sunshine versus clouds or precipitation, and urban effects all shape the daily maximum temperature outcome.
Market odds reflect the collective judgement of participants about which mutually exclusive temperature bin will contain the official daily maximum; interpret odds as relative market consensus rather than a definitive forecast.
The event will settle using the official data source specified in the market's settlement rules—typically a designated NOAA/NWS observation for Philadelphia. Traders should check the event description and settlement text for the exact station identifier and any fallback sources before trading.
Settlement is based on the official daily maximum temperature for the specified date as published by the designated authority; the platform will follow the timing and procedures set out in the event rules, which often wait for final or validated observations before finalizing settlement.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature bins defined on the event page. Only the bin that contains the official observed daily maximum for March 22, 2026 will be declared the winning outcome at settlement.
Short‑term shifts that materially change the expected daytime heating—such as the timing of a frontal passage, a late‑night rain event, cloud cover forecasts for daytime hours, or a sudden wind‑direction shift—tend to drive the largest market moves as traders update expectations.
The market's settlement rules specify fallback procedures and how post‑event corrections are handled. If the primary source is unavailable or later adjusted, the platform will apply the predefined hierarchy of sources and adjudication procedures described in the event documentation.