| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 63° to 64° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° to 62° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of six outcomes will match the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 21, 2026. It matters for traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking short-term climate variability because single-day highs can affect energy demand, public events, and forecasts.
Late March is a transitional period in Philadelphia when warm spring surges and late-season cold intrusions both occur, so day-to-day temperatures can swing substantially. Single-day extremes on a date like March 21 are driven by synoptic-scale patterns (e.g., a warm ridge versus an advancing cold front), coastal influences, cloud cover, and timing of precipitation. Historical variability means market prices will reflect both climatology and evolving short-range model guidance as the date approaches.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of which temperature outcome will be realized; movements reflect new forecast model runs, observations, and traders' information. To interpret prices for this event, track how they change as forecast uncertainty narrows in the days and hours before March 21.
The market will settle to the official observed maximum temperature as specified in the event rules; that typically comes from an identified official station or data provider (e.g., the National Weather Service/NOAA station listed in the contract). Check the market's rule text to confirm the exact station or dataset used for settlement.
Most weather markets use the local calendar date (Eastern Time for Philadelphia) from 00:00 to 23:59:59 on March 21, but you should verify the precise time window in the event contract because settlement periods are defined there.
Yes — if the contracted data provider issues official corrections within the market's allowed finalization window, the settled outcome can reflect those revisions; the event rules define how late corrections are handled.
Short-range forecast uncertainty declines as observation time approaches: new model runs, high-resolution ensembles, satellite and surface observations, and updated frontal timing materially affect traders' expectations, producing larger price moves close to the date.
Historical records and climatological normals provide a baseline context for how unusual a given outcome would be, but the realized single-day maximum depends heavily on that year's synoptic setup and timing, so combine climatology with current forecast model guidance.