| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° to 61° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 62° to 63° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° to 65° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia will be on March 20, 2026; it matters to traders, weather-sensitive businesses, and anyone tracking seasonal transitions or unusual temperature swings.
Late March in Philadelphia sits near the spring equinox and is meteorologically variable: conditions can range from lingering winter chill to early warm spells depending on large-scale patterns. Long-term climate trends have increased the frequency of warm extremes, but single-day outcomes remain strongly driven by short-term synoptic weather systems.
Market prices aggregate participants' expectations based on observations and model forecasts; they are a live signal of collective belief rather than a guarantee. Use prices alongside meteorological data and model guidance to form a trading view.
Settlement will use the official temperature observation specified in the market's settlement rules — typically the daily maximum as reported by the designated meteorological authority for the Philadelphia area; consult the event page for the named reporting station and dataset.
The market close time is listed as TBD; final settlement occurs after the designated authority publishes the official daily observation and any allowed revisions per the contract's settlement procedures, with timing noted on the event page.
Official stations (often at airports) can differ from downtown or suburban readings due to microclimates and land-use differences; because the contract uses a specific station, traders should evaluate how representative that station is for the outcome they expect.
Traders commonly monitor deterministic models (e.g., global and regional), ensemble forecasts for probabilistic spread, National Weather Service updates, satellite and surface observations, and short-term mesoscale guidance as the date approaches to capture timing and cloud/precipitation impacts.
Contingency procedures in the contract govern such cases: settlement typically follows the official authority’s guidance (which may use a secondary station, corrected/revised data, or another agreed source); check the event's settlement rules for the specific fallback process.