| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35° to 36° | 95% | 94¢ | 99¢ | — | $23K | Trade → |
| 33° to 34° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $22K | Trade → |
| 41° or above | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $16K | Trade → |
| 37° to 38° | 2% | 1¢ | 2¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $8K | Trade → |
| 32° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $1K | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature range will be the highest observed in Philadelphia on March 2, 2026. It matters for traders and hedgers who want to express or manage risk around a specific daily weather extreme in a major U.S. city.
Daily maximum temperatures in early March can swing widely because of competing winter and spring air masses; both synoptic storms and short-lived warm spells can set the day’s high. Markets like this typically settle to an official observing record reported by the National Weather Service / NOAA, and past outcomes reflect both weather variability and longer-term warming trends.
Market prices on this contract represent the collective view of traders about which discrete outcome bin will contain the reported highest temperature on that date; they are dynamic, not guarantees, and should be read as a consensus signal rather than a deterministic forecast.
Settlement typically follows the contract’s specified source — usually the official NWS/NOAA observing station for Philadelphia (commonly Philadelphia International Airport, PHL) as archived by NCEI/NWS. Consult the market rules for the exact station or dataset named for this contract.
This market’s close time is listed as TBD; trading typically ends before the target calendar date or at the time stated in the contract. Final settlement occurs after the official daily maximum is published or the archival dataset is released, which can take some time; check KALSHI’s event page and settlement policy for exact timing.
‘Highest temperature’ generally means the maximum observed temperature recorded during the local calendar day (00:00–24:00 local time) at the designated station. Many U.S. markets report values in degrees Fahrenheit and apply a rounding rule specified in the contract; verify the event’s rules for units and rounding conventions.
Watch official NWS forecasts and warnings, station observations at the designated Philadelphia site, short‑range high‑resolution models (HRRR, NAM), global models and their ensembles (GFS, ECMWF), and local mesoscale guidance; ensemble spread and trends across these sources are useful for assessing confidence.
Contracts include contingency and revision rules: settlement usually follows the authoritative archival dataset (e.g., NCEI final values) or an alternative specified in the event rules. If data are missing or revised, the market’s published settlement policy explains tie‑breakers, backup stations, and timeframes for final determination.