| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 19, 2026 will be and organizes that uncertainty into traded outcomes. It matters for traders hedging weather exposure and for anyone tracking late-winter/early-spring temperature extremes in the region.
March is a highly variable month climatologically in Philadelphia: the city can see late-winter cold snaps as well as early-spring warm spells depending on the synoptic pattern. Day-to-day outcomes are driven by weather systems (ridges, troughs, fronts) while long-term climate trends shift baselines over decades.
Market odds represent the aggregated expectations of participants about which outcome bin will contain the highest observed temperature on that date and will update as model forecasts and observations change. They are indicators of consensus, not guarantees, and settle to the official observation specified in the event rules.
The event settles to the maximum official air temperature measurement during the event's defined observation window at the designated reporting station; consult the event's settlement rules for the exact definition, units, and time window.
The event page and settlement rules list the official data source and station used for settlement; many weather markets use an NWS/airport or similarly authoritative station—check the event's specified source for this market.
The market close time is shown on the event page (if listed); final settlement typically occurs after the designated data provider posts its official daily summary for the station, and the market may allow a verification window per its rules — check the event page for the precise timeline.
Traders should review climatological averages for mid-March, the historical distribution of highs on March 19 across multiple years, and recent seasonal anomalies; historical variability and any recent warm/cold trends can help contextualize forecasts.
New model runs shifting the timing or strength of a front or ridge, official NWS forecast updates or warnings, observed temperature trends at nearby stations, and the development or weakening of coastal systems or precipitation events are the primary drivers of price movement.