| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° to 46° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 38° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 39° to 40° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 43° to 44° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 41° to 42° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 47° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market is about the highest officially observed temperature in Philadelphia on March 18, 2026, and matters for traders interested in short-term weather risk, energy demand, and local event impacts.
March is a seasonally variable month in the Mid-Atlantic, so outcomes can swing based on late-season cold fronts or early warm spells. Synoptic-scale patterns (position of highs and lows), coastal influences, and storm tracks all shape the day’s maximum temperature. The market is hosted on KALSHI and liquidity can change as forecasts and public attention evolve.
Market prices represent the collective expectation of traders and update as new forecast information becomes available; they should be read as a snapshot of consensus, not a guaranteed outcome.
The market operator sets the close time; because this market lists 'Closes: TBD' you should check the KALSHI event page for the final trading cutoff, which is typically before the official observation period begins.
Resolution follows the event’s official definition on the KALSHI page — often the highest temperature recorded at the designated official station for Philadelphia (for example, the primary National Weather Service/NOAA station). Traders should verify the exact station and data source listed in the market description.
Each outcome corresponds to a mutually exclusive temperature bucket or specific value range defined on the event page; the single outcome that matches the official recorded maximum temperature on Mar 18, 2026 will be the winning outcome.
Look at long-term March climatology for Philadelphia, recent year-to-year variability, and any recent trends in winter-to-spring temperatures; these provide a baseline expectation but can be overridden by short-term synoptic events.
As short-range forecast models, ensemble forecasts, and observations (satellite, radar, surface stations) update in the days and hours before Mar 18, market expectations typically adjust; higher model agreement and direct observations reduce uncertainty and can produce rapid price movement.