| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° to 47° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 54° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 50° to 51° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 48° to 49° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 17, 2026 will be; it matters to traders who want to express views on near-term weather and to anyone monitoring temperature-linked risks (energy demand, public health, travel).
Philadelphia in mid-March sits in the seasonal transition between winter and spring, so a wide range of outcomes is possible depending on synoptic patterns, cloud cover, and surface conditions. This specific contract offers six discrete outcome buckets and will resolve against an official observational data source described in the market rules.
Market prices reflect the collective expectation of traders and will move as model forecasts, observations, and weather trends change; treat prices as a real-time indicator of market sentiment rather than as an official forecast.
The contract will settle to the official observing location or dataset specified in the market’s resolution rules; commonly this is the National Weather Service/NOAA station used as Philadelphia’s official climate site, so check the event’s resolution description for the exact source.
The market will use the local-calendar date definition stated in its rules—typically 00:00 to 23:59 local time for the specified observing location—so confirm the resolution rules for any deviations (UTC offsets or observational reporting conventions).
Settlement follows the market’s stated definition; many weather contracts use the official daily maximum air temperature reported in the station’s daily summary, but you should verify whether the market uses instantaneous peak, hourly maxima, or a rounded daily max.
Tie-breaking, rounding rules, and measurement precision are set out in the event’s resolution procedures—these typically specify rounding conventions and the authoritative data field to use (for example, the reported daily max to the nearest degree), so consult the resolution rules before trading.
Market pricing will be sensitive to updates from deterministic and ensemble forecast models and to surface observations starting several days out, with the strongest influence often arriving in the 48–72 hour window before the date as short-range models and observations refine the expected air mass and cloud cover.