| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 71° to 72° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 64° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° to 66° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 67° to 68° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 73° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 69° to 70° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which temperature bin will contain the highest observed temperature in Philadelphia on March 16, 2026, letting traders express expectations about a specific daily weather outcome. It matters because daily high temperatures affect energy demand, outdoor events, and short‑term weather risk for residents and businesses.
Mid‑March in Philadelphia is a transitional period between winter and spring, so day‑to‑day highs can swing widely depending on synoptic patterns. Historical variability is driven by the timing of cold fronts, warm air intrusions, cloud cover, and residual snowpack, and forecasts rely on numerical models and real‑time observations. Market participants often combine model guidance, surface observations, and analog years to form expectations.
Market odds aggregate traders' views and update as new forecast data and observations arrive; they should be read as a real‑time summary of collective information rather than a guaranteed outcome. Use them alongside meteorological forecasts and official observations for decision making.
Settlement will use the official maximum temperature reported by the market's designated observing source; the market contract page identifies which station or dataset (for example, the National Weather Service observation for the Philadelphia area) is used for final settlement.
The highest temperature is the maximum observed during the local calendar day of March 16, 2026 at the designated observing station, with the contract rules specifying whether local civil time or a specific UTC window applies.
Final settlement occurs after the designated observing agency publishes its official daily summary for March 16, 2026; the exact posting time depends on the data provider and the exchange's settlement procedures, which are described in the market rules.
The six outcomes correspond to mutually exclusive temperature bins that together cover the plausible range of highs for that date; the precise numeric boundaries for each outcome are listed on the market contract page.
If the designated observing source issues corrected values, settlement follows the exchange's stated policy—typically the final quality‑controlled record from the provider is used—so check the contract rules for the exchange's revision and appeals procedures.