| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57° to 58° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 59° to 60° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 61° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° to 56° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia will be on March 15, 2026. It matters for people and organizations hedging weather risk, planning outdoor events, and tracking short-term climate variability.
Mid‑March is a transitional time between winter and spring in the northeastern U.S., so daily temperatures can swing widely depending on the timing of cold fronts, warm-air advection, or coastal influences. Regional patterns such as the jet stream position, blocking highs, or broader teleconnections can set the stage days to weeks in advance, while local factors (coastal proximity, urban heat island, recent snow cover) modulate conditions at the observing site.
Market odds reflect the collective expectation of traders given current information and will update as forecasts and observations change; they are a real‑time signal of market sentiment, not a deterministic forecast.
Settlement will use the official data source and observing station named in the KALSHI contract for this market; that contract specifies the exact station/database and should be consulted for the authoritative source.
The contract defines the metric, which is typically the single maximum air temperature observation recorded at the designated station during the 24‑hour period specified by the market (often the local calendar day or a stated UTC window); check the market rules for the precise definition.
The six outcomes correspond to discrete temperature ranges or bins laid out in the market contract; each outcome represents one of those specified intervals — see the market description for the exact bin boundaries.
The market contract contains fallback procedures, which commonly follow the official data provider's protocols (use of backup instruments/stations, data interpolation, or adjudication). Review the contract for the exact contingency and adjudication rules.
Watch short‑range model guidance and updates to the synoptic forecast (e.g., frontal timing, pressure patterns), official NWS forecasts and observations for the designated Philadelphia station, coastal storm development, recent snow cover and soil conditions, and longer‑lead teleconnection signals that set background tendencies.