| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54° to 55° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 60° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 52° to 53° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 56° to 57° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 58° to 59° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest air temperature recorded in Philadelphia on March 14, 2026 will be; it matters for traders, weather-dependent businesses, and anyone hedging temperature-sensitive risk for that specific date. Outcomes encode expectations about a single daily extreme rather than average conditions.
Mid-March in Philadelphia is a transition period between winter and spring, so daily maximum temperatures can swing widely from seasonably cool to unseasonably warm depending on synoptic-scale patterns. Longer-term climate trends have shifted the distribution of daily temperatures, increasing the frequency of warm extremes, while short-term drivers such as fronts, coastal effects, and large-scale oscillations determine day-to-day outcomes. Historical records for this calendar date and recent seasonal forecasts are commonly consulted by market participants.
Market odds reflect the collective, time-evolving expectations of participants given available forecasts and observations; they are not guarantees of the final temperature. As new model runs, observations, or local reports arrive, market prices typically move to incorporate that information.
The market will use the specific definition and observing station listed in the contract terms on the event page; typically this means the official daily maximum as reported by the designated meteorological data source for the specified location and observation period.
The exact station or dataset (for example, a particular airport METAR, NWS climate station, or other official source) is specified in the contract details on the event page—check those settlement rules to see which station is authoritative.
The market close time is listed on the event page when set (currently TBD); settlement will occur after the official daily maximum is published by the designated data source, per the contract’s settlement timing and procedures.
Consult recent numerical weather model runs, local NWS forecasts, the climatological distribution for March 14 in Philadelphia, and any relevant seasonal outlooks; also review recent trends (e.g., whether the region has been anomalously warm or cold) to gauge persistence or change.
Price moves can reflect new publicly available forecasts, release of official observations or corrections, high-volume trades by informed participants, changes in liquidity, and timing of market close relative to late-arriving model runs or local reports—none of which change the physical temperature but do change market expectations.