| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47° to 48° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 46° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 51° to 52° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 55° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 49° to 50° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 53° to 54° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks which of the listed temperature ranges will be the highest recorded in Philadelphia on March 13, 2026. It matters to traders interested in weather-driven risk, energy demand, and short-term climate variability.
Daily maximum temperature markets combine meteorology and real-world impacts: temperatures on a single date reflect large-scale weather patterns such as fronts, air masses, and cloud cover. Philadelphia's March temperatures historically show substantial day-to-day variability due to late-winter/early-spring transitions and occasional warm or cold intrusions.
Market prices reflect the collective view on which outcome will occur; they are tools for comparing relative likelihoods and how participants are updating forecasts as new weather information arrives. For settlement, the market will rely on a designated official observing station and dataset, so check the event rules for the exact source and definitions.
The market will use the official data source specified in the event rules; platforms commonly reference a National Weather Service/NOAA observing station designated for Philadelphia (check the event details for the exact station and dataset used for settlement).
This is typically defined as the local calendar day for the designated observing station (00:00 through 23:59 local time), but you should confirm the precise time zone and cutoff in the event's official settlement rules.
Settlement normally occurs after the official daily maximum is published by the designated source; the exchange will announce the settlement timing in the market rules or once the official observation becomes available.
Historical records and climatological normals provide context on typical variability and extremes for mid-March, but each year's synoptic pattern is decisive; consult NOAA climate archives or local station records for exact past values to inform your view.
Potential issues include sensor malfunctions, data revisions by the official agency, ambiguous station metadata (e.g., relocated sensors), or differing interpretations of the event definition; review the market's dispute and data-source policies for how such cases are handled.