| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66° to 67° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 70° to 71° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 72° to 73° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 65° or below | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 68° to 69° | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
| 74° or above | 0% | 0¢ | 0¢ | — | $0 | Trade → |
This market asks what the highest observed temperature in Philadelphia will be on March 12, 2026. It matters for traders and users who hedge or speculate on short-term temperature-driven risks (energy demand, event planning, transportation).
March in Philadelphia sits in the transition from winter to spring, so temperatures can swing rapidly depending on the presence of cold air masses, warm advection off the Atlantic, or coastal storms. Long-term warming trends affect the baseline climate but single-day outcomes are dominated by synoptic weather patterns and the timing of fronts. Historical records and recent seasonal forecasts provide context but not certainty for any one date.
Market odds reflect the collective expectations of participants about which temperature outcome will be recorded; they are a real-time signal of consensus rather than a guarantee. For final determination, consult the event’s settlement terms to see which observing station and dataset will be used.
The contract’s settlement clause specifies the official source; markets commonly use the National Weather Service/NOAA official observing station designated for Philadelphia, but you should check the event's terms to confirm the exact station and dataset that will be used for settlement.
Trading close time is listed on the market page (here it is noted as TBD). Final settlement typically occurs after the official daily observation is published by the designated data provider — check the market’s rules for the precise cutoff and settlement timeline.
The passage or delay of a cold front, the arrival of a warm air mass from the south or over the Atlantic, changes in cloud cover that alter daytime heating, and a shift in wind direction (onshore vs. inland flow) can all rapidly change the expected maximum for that day.
Historical climatology gives a baseline expectation and helps identify what would be unusually warm or cold, but single-day variability is large; treat historical data as context rather than a deterministic predictor and combine it with current synoptic forecasts.
The market will follow the reading from the specific station or dataset named in its settlement terms. If multiple datasets are referenced or disputes arise, the contract should describe the tie-breaker or adjudication procedure — contact the market operator or consult the official rules for that process.