| Outcome | Probability | Yes Bid | Yes Ask | 24h Change | Volume | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82° or above | 99% | 99¢ | 100¢ | — | $30K | Trade → |
| 74° to 75° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $25K | Trade → |
| 73° or below | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $18K | Trade → |
| 78° to 79° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $15K | Trade → |
| 80° to 81° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $14K | Trade → |
| 76° to 77° | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | — | $13K | Trade → |
This market asks which predefined temperature range will be the highest recorded in Philadelphia on Mar 11, 2026; it matters because day-to-day temperatures affect energy demand, public safety, and short-term planning. Participating provides a way to express a forecast on a specific, time-bounded weather outcome.
Philadelphia's early-March temperatures can be highly variable due to shifting storm tracks and intrusions of cold or mild air from the continent or Atlantic. Long-term climate trends have raised average temperatures, but individual-day outcomes are driven by synoptic weather patterns rather than climate alone. Historical March 11 readings provide context but do not determine this specific day's result.
Market odds aggregate traders' views about which temperature range will be highest on that calendar date; treat the market price as a real-time summary of collective expectations and new weather information. Use the market as one input alongside official forecasts and model guidance when forming your own view.
Settlement typically covers the local calendar day (00:00–23:59 local time) for the observing station specified in the contract; check the event's settlement rules on the market page for the precise local time window used.
The event's settlement clause names the authoritative source (for example a specific National Weather Service station or certified airport observation); review the market description to confirm the exact station or dataset that will be used for final adjudication.
The event lists close time as TBD, so monitor the market page for an announced close; if official observations are delayed, settlement follows the contract's rules and waits for the designated authoritative release or an adjudicator statement before finalizing results.
Only values from the official source named in the event rules are used for settlement; informal reports or unverified station readings do not change the outcome unless the contract specifies a role for them.
Track National Weather Service forecasts and local forecast discussions, short-range numerical models (e.g., ECMWF, GFS), high-resolution convection-allowing models, satellite and radar trends, and updates to the market's settlement details to align market expectations with near-term meteorology.